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May 20, 2022

Financial markets – with their twists and turns and unknowability – remind us just how hard it is to predict the future and just how wonderful perfect foresight would be, says Ruffer LLP’s Duncan MacInnes.

In the Back To The Future trilogy, the bad guy is a bully called Biff Tannen.

The megalomaniac mogul amassed his wealth because his older self travelled back in time to give his younger self the Grays Sports Almanac, a compilation of every sports result from 1950 to 2000. So Biff was able to earn a spectacular fortune from sports betting.

Financial markets – with their twists and turns and unknowability – remind us just how hard it is to predict the future and just how wonderful perfect foresight would be.

May 5, 2022

Globally, inflation is likely to be higher and more volatile. Inflation risk, an absent adversary throughout the careers of most investors today, will need to be priced once again, says Ruffer LLP’s Jamie Dannhauser.

In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping, having outmanoeuvred Mao Zedong’s preferred successor, began the process of reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

October 15, 2021

In the 26 years that Ruffer LLP has been in existence, a clear pattern has emerged. When the market mood is either complacent or ebullient, equity indices tend to rise strongly, and we lag behind them. An ‘unexpected’ crisis then hits, and Ruffer quickly recovers lost ground.

In the 26 years that Ruffer LLP has been in existence, a clear pattern has emerged. When the market mood is either complacent or ebullient, equity indices tend to rise strongly, and we lag behind them. An ‘unexpected’ crisis then hits, and Ruffer quickly recovers lost ground.

March 31, 2021

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

Investors’ great fear

December 18, 2020

What is the role of private markets in the midst of the coronavirus? As the investment environment continues to evolve while investors adapt to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we believe that private assets will play an increasingly important strategic role in fortifying portfolios over the long term, and that the current landscape provides compelling opportunities.

What is the role of private markets in the midst of the coronavirus? As the investment environment continues to evolve while investors adapt to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we believe that private assets will play an increasingly important strategic role in fortifying portfolios over the long term, and that the current landscape provides compelling opportunities.

November 12, 2020

Vertical farming is being planted as the future of agriculture and the blossoming sector’s long-term growth could be a good fit for family investors and their patient capital.

Vertical farming is being planted as the future of agriculture and the blossoming sector’s long-term growth could be a good fit for family investors and their patient capital.

Issues surrounding the increasing population of the world combined with water scarcity in a changing climate and the security of food and supply chains exposed by the coronavirus pandemic have all seeded minds on the possibilities of vertical farming.

July 12, 2019

The wealth of the world’s richest people, often leaders of legacy business families, has been hit the hardest by global economic turbulence to the tune of $2 trillion—the first downturn in seven years.

The wealth of the world’s richest people, often leaders of legacy business families, has been hit the hardest by global economic turbulence to the tune of $2 trillion—the first downturn in seven years.

The wealth of ultra-high net worth individuals (UHNWI), who represent the richest 1% of the world’s high net worth individual (HNWI) population, accounted for 75% of the total global wealth decline, according to the new World Wealth Report 2019 released this week.

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